Australian housing markets report Northern Beaches back in town Dr Andrew Wilson – Domain Group senior economist July 2014





Current state of the national housing market





Recovery now consolidated





  • All capital city house prices at or approaching record levels
  • Brisbane and Adelaide now growing solidly
  • Hobart prices rising again but Canberra volatile
  • Strong and consistent finish to 2013 - all markets on the up
  • Peak prices growth rates moderating though 2014




The future for house price growth? ...as usual depends on the economy





Key Drivers





  • Low unemployment and more jobs
  • Rising wages, incomes and profits
  • Lower interest rates
  • Rising stockmarket
  • Confidence
  • Economic outlook 2014




Mixed national economic outlook





  • Optimism just outweighing pessimism but future still cloudy
  • Reserve Bank wary on near-term direction of economy - but March GDP up




International economy improving moderately





  • Growth in China remains strong and will strengthen as global demand rises
  • US economy continues to slowly revive but growth still too low
  • Commodity prices to increase over medium-term as global demand rises
  • AUD to fall as USD rises – then rise as export demand for resources increases
  • Mining boom lives on – record WA iron ore exports – new mines Galilee & Surat Basins Qld




Mixed results for local economies





  • NSW on the move with upward growth trend – mixed economy spreads the load
  • VIC set for decline as manufacturing base wanes but building and services holding up
  • QLD rises as dollar falls - strong export sector, tourism, population growth, confidence up
  • SA showing early signs of revival but will be a gradual and lengthy readjustment process
  • WA still robust with population surge and rising demand for iron ore but signs of creaking
  • Northern beaches to continue solid recovery into spring as restored confidence rises
  • Driven by value perceptions, local lifestyle, downsizers and investors
  • Sydney prices growth to moderate from last year but still up by a solid 7 to 9 percent




A rising tide lifts all boats - in time (JF Kennedy, AJ Wilson)





  • Economies
  • Employment
  • Incomes
  • Population growth
  • Prosperity
  • Confidence
  • House prices