Australian housing markets report Northern Beaches back in town Dr Andrew Wilson – Domain Group senior economist July 2014
Current state of the national housing market
Recovery now consolidated
- All capital city house prices at or approaching record levels
- Brisbane and Adelaide now growing solidly
- Hobart prices rising again but Canberra volatile
- Strong and consistent finish to 2013 – all markets on the up
- Peak prices growth rates moderating though 2014
The future for house price growth? …as usual depends on the economy
Key Drivers
- Low unemployment and more jobs
- Rising wages, incomes and profits
- Lower interest rates
- Rising stockmarket
- Confidence
- Economic outlook 2014
Mixed national economic outlook
- Optimism just outweighing pessimism but future still cloudy
- Reserve Bank wary on near-term direction of economy – but March GDP up
International economy improving moderately
- Growth in China remains strong and will strengthen as global demand rises
- US economy continues to slowly revive but growth still too low
- Commodity prices to increase over medium-term as global demand rises
- AUD to fall as USD rises – then rise as export demand for resources increases
- Mining boom lives on – record WA iron ore exports – new mines Galilee & Surat Basins Qld
Mixed results for local economies
- NSW on the move with upward growth trend – mixed economy spreads the load
- VIC set for decline as manufacturing base wanes but building and services holding up
- QLD rises as dollar falls – strong export sector, tourism, population growth, confidence up
- SA showing early signs of revival but will be a gradual and lengthy readjustment process
- WA still robust with population surge and rising demand for iron ore but signs of creaking
- Northern beaches to continue solid recovery into spring as restored confidence rises
- Driven by value perceptions, local lifestyle, downsizers and investors
- Sydney prices growth to moderate from last year but still up by a solid 7 to 9 percent
A rising tide lifts all boats – in time (JF Kennedy, AJ Wilson)
- Economies
- Employment
- Incomes
- Population growth
- Prosperity
- Confidence
- House prices